The Lede Blog: Aug. 26 Updates on Hurricane Irene

On Friday, The Lede tracked preparations for the expected landfall of Hurricane Irene, a powerful storm heading for the northeastern United States.

1:17 A.M. |Amtrak Service Cut and Plane Arrivals Canceled

All New York City-area airports will be closed to incoming flights after noon on Saturday, and Amtrak has canceled all Northeast Corridor trains that would have run on Sunday.

Amtrak will also reduce service on Saturday on its Northeast Corridor, Keystone Corridor, Springfield Line, Empire Service, Vermonter, Piedmont Service and Northeast Regional routes and for many of its long-distance trains, according to a statement posted on Amtrak?s Web site.

The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey announced at 9:30 p.m. that it would close all five of its airports ? Kennedy and La Guardia in New York City, Newark Liberty, Stewart in Orange County, N.Y., and Teterboro in New Jersey ? to arriving flights.

From the Port Authority?s Web site:

Due to Hurricane Irene, all Port Authority Airports will close to arriving domestic and international flights at noon tomorrow. The five airports will remain open for departing flights pending further updates. Please check with your carrier before coming to JFK. There will be limited mass transit access to the airport. The MTA will begin to shut down all train, bus, and subway services throughout the city and on Long Island starting at 12:00 p.m. At the same time, NJ Transit will suspend all rail operations and at 6:00 p.m., all bus operations will be suspended. Visit the transit agencies websites for more up to date news on their operations. You can also visit www.panynj.com for updated info and weather for all Port Authority facilities.

Refunds are available for Amtrak riders whose trains were canceled. Passengers who want updated information should call 800-USA-RAIL or go to Amtrak.com.

1:16 A.M. |Live From Nags Head, N.C.

Brian Stelter is reporting from Nags Head, N.C., about 240 miles from the center of the storm:

Bands of severe thunderstorms are now whipping eastern North Carolina, announcing the arrival of Hurricane Irene. As expected, flooding is becoming a serious concern.

While the center of the storm is still well offshore and is not expected to reach the coast until Saturday morning, these outer storm bands are dangerous because they contain torrential rains and can spawn tornadoes. About two hours after night fell, much of the coast was placed under a flood warning.

Local forecasters said that the eastern part of the state had already received two to three inches of rain, with at least that much or more on the way before dawn.

A drive through Nags Head on Friday night showed that no stores were open, and the last gas station was closed at 8 p.m. A sign there read, ?Be safe.? There were few cars on the main roads, indicating that people were respecting the authorities? requests to evacuate or, barring that, to stay home.

12:36 A.M. |Photographs From Your Hometown as the Storm Moves In

Readers of The New York Times have been sending in their photographs as Hurricane Irene moved closer to shore. Submit your own.

11:41 P.M. |Follow the Hurricane in Real Time

The New York Times has developed an interactive hurricane tracking map that allows you to follow the storm?s progress in real time.

11:39 P.M. |New York Evacuation Now Estimated at 370,000 People

The Office of Emergency Management has raised the city?s estimate of the number of people required to evacuate to 370,000. Previous estimates has put the figure at 250,000.

10:31 |How Hurricanes Get Their Names

In theory, a butterfly flapping its wings halfway across the world could have caused the eddies that gave birth to Hurricane Irene, but the origin of the storm?s name is not nearly so fanciful.

Hurricanes are named by the World Meteorological Organization, an agency of the United Nations. The group was established in 1950, right around the time that, in the Southern Hemisphere at least, such storms began to be given both men?s and women?s names.

Storms have long been given names for simplicity?s sake ? rather than using? numbers or descriptions ? in messages of warning, but there were often arbitrary: a hurricane could be named after a ship it wrecked, for example, according to information on the meteorological group?s Web site.

Starting in the 1900s, proper names were used in alphabetical order. For North Atlantic storms, all of them were female, but they were randomly chosen, not, the organization stresses, selected to name the storm after a real person.

Now a multinational committee keeps lists of names for North Atlantic storms that it has maintained since 1953 (male names were added in 1979). The six lists are used in a rotation, except when a storm has been ?so deadly or costly that the future use of its name on a different storm would be inappropriate for reasons of sensitivity.? Hurricane Katrina in 2005, which caused such devastation in New Orleans, and Hurricane Mitch, which struck Honduras in 1998, are among the names that have been retired.

8:45 P.M. |Hurricane Center Says Storm Is Staying on Track

In its 8 p.m. update, the National Hurricane Center reported that Hurricane Irene continued to barrel up the East Coast at 14 miles per hour. It continued:

The core of the hurricane will approach the coast of North Carolina tonight and pass near or over the North Carolina coast on Saturday. The hurricane is forecast to move near or over the mid-Atlantic coast Saturday night and move over southern New England on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 miles per hour with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Irene reaches the coast of North Carolina. Some weakening is expected after that, but Irene is forecast to remain a hurricane as it moves along the mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.

Irene is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles from the center and tropical-force winds extend outward of up to 290 miles. During the past hour, a sustained wind of 52 miles per hour and a gust to 62 miles per hour were reported at the Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach North Carolina.

In addition, tropical storm conditions are expected to reach southern New England on Saturday night, with hurricane conditions predicted for Sunday, according to the report.

Water levels could rise by 6 to 11 feet above ground level in parts of North Carolina, the hurricane center said. Isolated tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina.

As the storm moves north, New England will experience tropical storm conditions on Saturday and feel the force of a full-blown hurricane on Sunday. Farther south, water levels may rise by four and six feet in the southern portion of the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries.

A maximum of 15 inches of rainfall could accumulate in some places, the hurricane center said, causing flash floods, swells and rip currents that could be life-threatening.

8:30 P.M. |Obama Declares State of Emergency for New York

President Obama declared a state of emergency for New York State about 5 p.m. on Friday in anticipation of Hurricane Irene, a Category 2 storm, making landfall on the East Coast, The Times?s Sarah Maslin Nir reports.

Our colleague Brian Stelter, who is reporting on the storm in North Carolina ? and posting a steady stream of updates on his @BrianStelter Twitter feed ? reports:

For some store owners on the Outer Banks, Irene is a ?hurri-cation.? That?s what Jerry Slayton, the manager of the Cavalier Surf Shop, called it on Friday, right after the last sandbag was put in place at the front door.

Mr. Slayton and his parents, Ken and Marty, said the summer tourism season had been busy ? noticeably busier than last year ? so the economic impact of Irene is less severe than it otherwise would have been. ?We?ve worked a lot of hours all summer so this is kind of like a little day off,? Mrs. Slayton said.

What does a ?hurri-cation? consist of? ?We go home, play games and wait the storm out,? Ken Slayton said.

While most tourists have headed home by now, many of the people who call Nags Head home are staying, the Slaytons said. ?They know how to prepare,? Mrs. Slayton said. Evidently she is prepared: she then offered this reporter a beer.

Kim Severson, the Atlanta bureau chief for The New York Times, is also filing updates on the storm on on her @kimseverson Twitter feed.

6:17 P.M. |Chart Explains Possible Damage From Hurricane Winds

Predictions that the storm could weaken to a Category 1 hurricane by the time it reaches population centers might spark some relief, but it is important to keep in mind what kind of damage hurricane-force winds can cause. This useful chart from the National Hurricane Center explains in great detail exactly what sort of damage hurricanes of various categories are likely to cause.

Here is a summary of what to expect from a Category 1 storm, which comes with ?very dangerous winds? of 74-95 m.p.h that ?will produce some damage.?

People, livestock, and pets struck by flying or falling debris could be injured or killed.

Older (mainly pre-1994 construction) mobile homes could be destroyed, especially if they are not anchored properly as they tend to shift or roll off their foundations. Newer mobile homes that are anchored properly can sustain damage involving the removal of shingle or metal roof coverings, and loss of vinyl siding, as well as damage to carports, sunrooms, or lanais.

Some poorly constructed frame homes can experience major damage, involving loss of the roof covering and damage to gable ends as well as the removal of porch coverings and awnings. Unprotected windows may break if struck by flying debris. Masonry chimneys can be toppled. Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof shingles, vinyl siding, soffit panels, and gutters. Failure of aluminum, screened-in, swimming pool enclosures can occur.

Some apartment building and shopping center roof coverings could be partially removed. Industrial buildings can lose roofing and siding especially from windward corners, rakes, and eaves. Failures to overhead doors and unprotected windows will be common.

Windows in high-rise buildings can be broken by flying debris. Falling and broken glass will pose a significant danger even after the storm. There will be occasional damage to commercial signage, fences, and canopies.

Large branches of trees will snap and shallow rooted trees can be toppled.

Extensive damage to power lines and poles will likely result in power outages that could last a few to several days.

Here is the latest interactive map from the Google Crisis Response team charting Hurricane Irene?s predicted path, based on data from the National Hurricane Center.

5:46 P.M. |Even if Storm Weakens, Flooding Could Be a Problem

Jeff Masters, a founder of the Weather Underground Web site who studied storms from the air for four years with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration?s Hurricane Hunters, is tracking Irene?s progress in great detail on his WunderBlog.

In his most recent post, Dr. Masters reports: ?Satellite data and measurements from the Hurricane Hunters show that Irene is weakening.? He explains that an Air Force flight over the storm this morning ?found that Irene?s eyewall had collapsed,? this morning. He adds: ?The winds measured in Irene near the surface support classifying it as a strong Category 1 hurricane or weak Category 2.?

Based on the latest data, Dr. Masters produced a good news/bad news forecast: predicting that the storm could cause dramatic flooding even if it weakens to a Category 1 hurricane as it moves north. He explains:

With its eyewall collapsed and just 18 more hours over water before landfall, Irene does not have time to build a new eyewall and intensify. The storm is too large to weaken quickly, and the best forecast is that Irene will be a strong Category 1 hurricane at landfall in North Carolina on Saturday.

Based on the latest wind analysis from NOAA?s Hurricane Research Division and Irene?s continued weakening trend, I predict that the 80-mile section of North Carolina coast to the right of where Irene makes landfall will receive sustained hurricane-force winds of 75-85 m.p.h. on Saturday at landfall; the 80-mile section of coast to the left will receive 55-75 m.p.h. winds. High wind shear of 30 knots will begin ripping into Irene Sunday morning when it is near Southern New Jersey, and more rapid weakening will occur.

By the time Irene arrives on Long Island Sunday afternoon, it will probably have top sustained winds in the 65-75 m.p.h. range. However, since Irene is such a huge storm ? tropical storm force winds extend out up to 290 miles from the center ? it has set a massive amount of the ocean?s surface in motion, which will cause a much larger storm surge than the winds would suggest. At 3:30 pm EDT this afternoon, a wind analysis from NOAA?s Hurricane Research Division indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene still rated a 5.0 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have.

While this damage potential should steadily decline as Irene moves northwards and weakens, we can still expect a storm surge one full Saffir-Simpson Category higher than Irene?s winds when it impacts the coast. Since tides are at their highest levels of the month this weekend due to the new moon, storm surge flooding will be at a maximum during the high tidal cycles that will occur at 8 p.m. Saturday night and 8 a.m. Sunday morning. Wherever Irene happens to be at those times, the storm surge damage potential will be maximized. I continue to give a 20 percent chance that a 3-4 foot storm surge high enough to over-top the Manhattan flood walls and swamp the New York City subway system will occur on Sunday. The latest 11 a.m. probabilistic storm surge map from the National Hurricane Center shows a 20-30 percent chance of a storm surge in excess of 3 feet in New York Harbor. Keep in mind that these maps are calculated for normal tide level, and this weekend?s high tides will be nearly 1 foot above normal.

5:18 P.M. |Looking at Simulations of the Possible Storm Surge

In a new post on his Dot Earth blog, ?New York Surge From Irene Looks Bad, But Not Off Charts,? my colleague Andrew Revkin reports:

Researchers at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology focused on coastal impacts from hurricanes have run fresh simulations of the possible storm surge as Hurricane Irene hits the New York metropolitan region. Simulations using two surge models (known by their acronyms, SLOSH and ADCIRC) found 1.22 and 1.05 meters of surge (4 and 3.44 feet) of surge at the Battery, at the southern tip of Manhattan.

This would pose serious risks to low installations and the subways but is nowhere near a worst case (think 13 feet, as in 1821)?.

The surge model also does not include waves* and the extra tide expected because it?s a new moon. They?re in the process of running a simulation with that factor included.

In an update to the post, he adds:

The Storm Surge Research Group at the State University of New York, Stony Brook, has a great online tool that provides an advance estimate of storm surge at important spots around New York City and Long Island Sound. Click on a buoy to see the current state of sea level and what?s anticipated over the next 24 hours (the models are run twice a day). The group emphasizes that this is a work in progress and should not be used to make evacuation decisions or the like.

4:51 P.M. |NASA Image Shows Scale of Hurricane Off East Coast

The latest in a series of remarkable NASA satellite images of Hurricane Irene tracking up the East Coast shows it heading for land about three and a half hours ago, at 17:02 UTC, or 1:02 p.m. EDT.

3:08 P.M. |Updated Forecast From National Hurricane Center

The National Hurricane Center?s latest advisory notes that Irene has ?weakened slightly,? but still packs winds of 100 miles per hour.

The Google Crisis Response team has produced an interactive map that charts the storm?s predicted path.

2:13 P.M. |New York Orders Mandatory Evacuation of Some Areas

At a news conference minutes ago, Mayor Michael Bloomberg announced that he is ordering a mandatory evacuation of coastal areas in Brooklyn, Queens and Staten Island, along with Battery Park City and the financial district in Lower Manhattan and Governor?s Island. Residents of what the city calls Zone A must be out of their homes by 5 p.m. on Saturday. Zone A is clearly outlined in this interactive map posted online by WNYC. A searchable version of the map is embedded in our 1:17 p.m. update.

Earlier, the city decided to shut down the city?s entire subway and bus system at noon on Saturday.

1:50 P.M. |New York Plans to Shut Transit System on Saturday

My colleague James Barron reports:

With Hurricane Irene pushing relentlessly toward the East Coast, officials made plans to shut down New York City?s sprawling subway and bus system beginning at noon on Saturday, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo said.

The commuter rail lines that serve Long Island, Westchester County and Connecticut will also be shut down.

New York?s mayor, Michael Bloomberg, plans to decide by Saturday morning whether to order a general evacuation of the low-lying areas.

Outside New York City, local governments announced some less dramatic changes:

Some Atlantic City casinos made plans to stop rolling the dice and turn off the slot machines by 8 p.m. Friday. The naval submarine base in Groton, Conn., sent four submarines out to ride out the storm deep in the Atlantic Ocean. And Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey said that all lanes of 28-mile stretch of a major highway in Ocean County would go in only one direction ? westward ? beginning at 6 p.m. on Friday to help speed the trip away from Long Beach Island.

1:40 P.M. |Image of Irene From Space Shows Huge Storm

Based on this image of the earth, taken from a NASA satellite on Friday at 10:45 a.m. ET, the space agency estimates that Hurricane Irene now has a diameter of about 510 miles, which is almost one-third the length of the U.S. Atlantic coastline:

1:31 P.M. |Obama Warns Americans to ?Take This Seriously?

Associated Press video of President Barack Obama addressing Americans on the need to prepare for Hurricane Irene.

As my colleague Jackie Calmes reports:

President Obama will cut short his Martha?s Vineyard vacation because of Hurricane Irene and return Friday night, as he urged Americans along the Eastern Seaboard to take precautions against the potentially ?historic hurricane? making its way toward the coast this weekend.

Mr. Obama, his wife and two daughters were to leave Martha?s Vineyard, just off Massachusetts, on Saturday but he decided ?it would be more prudent? for him to get back to the White House to monitor events by returning Friday, said spokesman Josh Earnest. Island authorities had begun their own preparations for the storm, including canceling some ferries to the mainland.

Immediately before directing his aides to prepare to depart, Mr. Obama appeared before cameras at his rental farm property to warn that Hurricane Irene, which on Friday was barreling toward North Carolina on a path that threatened all the way through New England, is ?likely to be an extremely dangerous and costly storm.?

?All indications point to this being a historic hurricane,? he added.

?I cannot stress this highly enough: If you are in the projected path of this hurricane, you have to take precautions now. Don?t wait. Don?t delay. We all hope for the best, but we have to be prepared for the worst. All of us have to take this storm seriously. You need to listen to your state and local officials, and if you are given an evacuation order, please follow it,? Mr. Obama said.

1:17 P.M. |A Searchable Map of New York?s Evacuation Zones

As my colleague James Barron reports, ?New York City began evacuating hospitals and nursing homes in low-lying areas on Friday morning, and the National Weather Service issued a hurricane watch for the city, Long Island and Connecticut and a hurricane warning for much of New Jersey.?

Readers in New York City who want to get an idea of how they might be affected by a direct hit from Hurricane Irene can download a map prepared by the city?s Office of Emergency Management, which shows exactly which neighborhoods might need to be evacuated. The map divides low-lying areas of the city into three zones from which residents might need to be evacuated. As the office explains:

Residents in Zone A face the highest risk of flooding from a hurricane?s storm surge. Zone A includes all low-lying coastal areas and other areas that could experience storm surge from ANY hurricane making landfall close to New York City.

Residents in Zone B may experience storm surge flooding from a MODERATE (Category 2 and higher) hurricane.

Residents in Zone C may experience storm surge flooding from a MAJOR (Category 3 & 4) hurricane making landfall just south of New York City. A major hurricane is unlikely in New York City, but not impossible.

WNYC, a public radio station, has taken the city?s data and created this interactive version of the map, which allows users to search by address to find out if they are in one of the potential evacuation zones.

12:57 P.M. |Latest Forecast for Path of Hurricane Irene

Here, from the Web site of WNYC, the New York public radio station, is a map showing the latest forecast for the path of Hurricane Irene, which was issued by the National Weather Service at 11 a.m.

12:20 P.M. |Predicted Track of Storm Recalls Hurricane Floyd

On Thursday, my colleague John Schwartz explained the difficulty of evacuating even flood-prone areas, like the North Carolina coastal region:

When it is time to go, it is probably too late.

Evacuations of coastal areas, and especially island communities like those on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, present problems that are geographical, logistical and emotional: many of the vacationers and residents do not want to leave until they are certain they have to. But the longer they wait, the harder it is to get out.

North Carolina has studied its roadways and evacuation routes and developed exquisitely detailed plans that include the placement of checkpoints and the staffing levels at each one. But no one is under any illusion that things will necessarily go smoothly.

?No matter what plan you have in effect, if everybody decides to leave at the last minute, you?re going to have a traffic jam,? said Sgt. Jeff Gordon of the North Carolina State Highway Patrol. ?The thing about storms is, they are so unpredictable you don?t want to stay until the last minute to see if the storm is going to turn.?

Today, John, like many people in and around New York, has been thinking more about the possible impact of the storm here. He writes:

It?s hard to say what damage a hurricane will do, but some of us watching Irene think back on a hurricane called Floyd, which followed a track in 1999 that was not too different. Its winds, by the time it got to the Northeast, were not a terrible issue, but it pushed a damaging storm surge in front of it and dropped tremendous amounts of rain on the region.

If Floyd is any guide, expect flooding, and lots of it: Rockland and Westchester Counties saw flooding in Floyd, as well as northern and central New Jersey. Downtown Bound Brook, NJ was under more than 15 feet of water as the Raritan crested some 20 feet above flood levels; two people there died.

More than $100 million has been spent to shore up flood control for Bound Brook since then, as Peter Applebome wrote last year, but the town continues to experience flooding in heavy rains.

The flood damage around the region remains a fresh memory. A Mongolian BBQ restaurant in Millburn, NJ, now closed, had a photo by the door from Floyd. It was a picture of the front of the restaurant, which sat by a park with a gentle stream running through it. Floyd turned the stream into a torrent, and several feet of water flowed through the front door of the restaurant. It was not the sort of image, for homeowners in town, that aids the digestion.

New Jersey?s Star-Ledger has a report on the lessons residents and officials in Bound Brook say they learned from Floyd.

Here, from Wikipedia, is a 1999 National Weather Service graphic on the impact of Hurricane Floyd:

11:49 A.M. |Hurricane Center Expects Storm to Strike I-95 Corridor

My colleague Eric Lipton reports from Washington:

Even with the modest weakening overnight of Hurricane Irene, the nation?s top emergency response officials and weather watchers warned Friday morning that the storm had the capacity to cause major, life-threatening damage along the Eastern seaboard and that those in low-lying coastal areas should heed any warnings to evaluate.

?A lot of trees down, a lot of power lines down, heavy rain,? said Craig Fugate, the head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, describing the likely impact of the storm, even in in-land areas.

Bill Read, director of the National Hurricane Center, said that he is highly confident now of the storm?s track, meaning it will be a rare hurricane that travels right along the densely populated Interstate 95 corridor. ?This is not just a coastal event? he said, echoing the warnings from Mr. Fugate.

Mr. Fugate, a former Florida emergency response official, said the key factor that federal officials can now influence ? by urging residents in vulnerable areas to evacuate ? is the number of deaths or injuries the storm causes. ?The one thing we can change the outcome on is loss of life,? he said. ?People need to leave early, travel a safe distance.?

11:41 A.M. |North Carolina Braces for Impact

As my colleagues Katharine Seelye and Eric Lipton report, Hurricane Irene is ?lumbering toward North Carolina on Friday morning, heading for a destructive march up the East Coast in an unusually broad path that could affect 55 million people.?

Hurricane watches have been issued for North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York and New England, putting residents on notice to prepare for the worst and in some cases begin evacuations?.

The storm was circling off the coast of Georgia in the late morning, slowly moving north and east, with an expected landfall of its most intense core in North Carolina on Saturday afternoon.

Brian Stelter, who is reporting for The Times from North Carolina, writes:

Standing on the beach at dawn, Dave Wessel, the mayor of the town of Duck, North Carolina said he anticipated a calm evacuation on Friday. A ?good rush of people? left town on Thursday, he said, adding that most stores had either closed or would do so by mid-day Friday.

Mr. Wessel and his wife had reserved a hotel room two hours inland, but the storm is so wide that they are now planning on driving three hours inland, to Rocky Mount ? a testament to just how wide the hurricane is. ?It just refreshes to wobble back east? out to sea, he said.

Here is an Associated Press video report from Kill Devil Hills, N.C.

Source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=97f23ee080aa99d1c36d5433aa09a14b

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